The Nagorno-Karabakh issue and its impact on Russian-Iranian relations were discussed in Moscow« Back
On November 24, 2020. Vladimir Evseev, head of the Department of Eurasian integration and development of the SCO Institute of CIS countries, made a report on "The Problem of Nagorno-Karabakh and its impact on Russian-Iranian relations" at a webinar organized by the Iranian diplomatic Association.
In his report, he mentioned the historical background of the second war in Nagorno-Karabakh (September-November 2020), in particular the tragic events in Sumgait (1988) and Baku (1990), organized by Azerbaijani nationalists; he spoke very briefly about the First war in Nagorno-Karabakh (1992-1994), the American (updated Madrid principles 2010) and Russian (draft agreement in Kazan in 2011) initiatives to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, the fighting in April 2016, as well as the armed incident on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border in July 2020. In his opinion, since 2012 the Azerbaijani leadership began preparing for a new war in the Nagorno-Karabakh zone, which was already evident in late July-early August 2014, when the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh became more serious since the end of the First war.
The last war in Nagorno-Karabakh Evseev called the war of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Their massive use in the first three weeks of the war made it possible for Baku to control the airspace of Karabakh. This allowed the Azerbaijani armed forces, which had complete superiority in modern tanks, self-propelled artillery and multiple superiority in personnel, to regain control of four of the seven districts of the security zone around the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) by force during October. Unlike Azerbaijan, Armenia did not even partially mobilize: only troops deployed in peacetime, Karabakh militias and volunteers were on the front line, which were forced to restrain the offensive of five times the enemy's superior forces. In such conditions, the transfer of air defense units and a missile brigade from Armenia was insufficient. As a result, by November 9, Azerbaijani troops occupied most of the Hadrut region of the NKR and the city of Shusha. The Armenian troops were on the verge of a military disaster. They, as well as the civilian population of the Republic, were saved by Russian peacekeepers. The long-awaited peace has come to Nagorno-Karabakh, although not always on favorable terms for Armenia.
V. Evseev highly appreciated Iran's agreement to open the country's airspace for the delivery of Russian military cargo to Armenia, but this was done only after two weeks of fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. Moscow and Tehran have passed a serious test of their bilateral relations. This creates confidence that the course through strategic dialogue to strategic partnership will continue.
According to V. Yevseyev, stability in Nagorno-Karabakh will remain in the next five years. Much will be determined by the internal political situation in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. In particular, the current military budget of the Republic of Azerbaijan no longer corresponds to the realities of the socio-economic situation of Azerbaijanis.