Shanghai is almost invisible. On the creation of a common strategic rear Russia and China without drawing alignments against third countries« Back
Assessment of the role and prospects of the SCO development strategically and within the process of globalization, for the understanding of the processes requires a comparison with another. The necessary accent gives the history of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) with the start of the processes in 1997. It was then that for the solution of economic problems confronting the global crisis of the industrial society of the expanded reproduction of capital with the support of US petrodollar China entered the ASEAN formula ASEAN + 3 (China, Japan, South Korea). And the “Shanghai Five” (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan) in Central Asia appeared after the signing of the agreements on confidence building measures in the border area with China. The organization after Uzbekistan joining in 2001 has become an “international organization of economic cooperation, energy partnership, scientific and cultural cooperation of the member states” in order to strengthen stability and security of the members of the organization from the threats of terrorism, extremism and separatism.
It is remarkable that the economic interests of China and ASEAN countries coincided and by 2012 the Association turned into a free trade zone. And within the SCO China and Russia’s economic interests did not coincide, and thus far the Organization remains a political discussion club. It is evidenced in the fact that the Forum Sochi-2016 representatives of the civil societies are from 26 non-Western countries, where the working languages of the forum are Russian and English, whereas SCO official languages are Chinese and Russian.
In 2012, China declared the “Chinese dream”: the Renaissance of China and the transformation of the country (in 2025) in apparent global leader: “the first-order global power”.
The background for the implementation of the “China Dream” acts a new hybrid III World War which began in 2013. This is something that until now did not exist. It added to the world financial and economic crisis, acts of violence in the Greater Middle East (LIH) and in Ukraine; a show of force on the Korean Peninsula and in Africa. Pope of the Roman Catholic Church 13.09.14 stated that “third world war has already begun”. And our experts all remember the “cold war” and wait for “treacherous attack” of NATO armored troops in the European theater of war.
26.01.16 Pope Francis in an interview with Shiite theologian Iranian President Rouhani further stressed that “the world has entered a period of irreversible upheaval and change beyond recognition before the end of this (2016) year”. What is it about?
Distinguishing signs of intelligence (which is the essence of the camouflage nets misinformation) suggests that before the end of 2016 will reformat the global banking system, and the countries and peoples will enter a new world currency. China is able to distinguish between the signs of the times. For a long time it is concerned about the creation of strategic rear for itself in the world wars of the new hybrid.
It is clear that for China the front of the struggle for global leadership is deployed in the south-east towards the Pacific Ocean and in the south-west in the direction of Central Asia, the rear also serves Russia beyond the Urals. The rear - this is something that does not lose, it’s something that you can rely on, and this is where the material, mobilization and design base is. It is also noteworthy that Russian counter-sanctions front, military operations and humanitarian operations in Ukraine are again deployed towards the West, and a strategic rear with unlimited human resource stands China. The bottom line: Russia and China stand between each other “back to back”.
Way to create a strategic rear soon after the announcement of “Chinese dream” was the President of China Xi Jinping’s proposal to restore the Great Tea Road between China and Russia. This proposal was made on 23.03.13 during the first foreign visit of the new leader of China in his speech at the Moscow State Institute. However, in the Kremlin corridors he was not heard. Then, six months later, on 09.13.13 Xi Jinping in his speech at the University of Nazarbayev in Astana offered to restore the Great Silk Road from China towards a technological Germany, de facto bypassing Russia of a democratic choice. This initiative has been heard and has now evolved into a doctrine: the Economic Belt of the New Silk Road and the Maritime Silk Road of XXI century (“one zone, one way”).In this economic zone appears as the center of the joint with the prosperity of China's 16 countries of “common destiny” (12 countries of which are Islamic states, including Turkey). A sea route as a logistics project does not intersect with the power of the United States Marine.
In this situation, under pressure from anti-Russian sanctions of the West Russian leadership began to consider the possibility of relying on China. On 8.5.15 leaders of Russia and China in Moscow issued a statement “On joining of the Economic Belt of the New Silk Road and the Eurasian Economic Union”. However, the continuing divergence of economic interests between Russia and China market competition is inevitable in the absence of a mechanism of linking. On the first day of the forum director of the Institute of Russian, Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences honestly said.
What to do? Politicians from the Institute of the Russian-Chinese strategic cooperation have offered long ago to combine divergent material interests with general intangibles countries and peoples of non-Western civilizations. There is successful historical experience: in the XIII - XV centuries all Turan, Iran, the peoples of China and the Russian principality lived in a single state of Genghis Khan (yoke in Chinese). Where family basis for the peoples was not an ideology or a creed, but only ethics. Ethics “The five above”: the spiritual above the material; total private higher; justice above the law; ministry of higher tenure; power over the property. 64-bans of Great Yasa, where the main crime was treason and it was enough to maintain order. After all, non-Western peoples lived in the ethics of older and younger brothers and sisters, not a marriage contract «No1 parent to No2 parent ».
Even in 1993 the US National Security Council expert Samuel Huntington predicted that the Third World War as a clash of civilizations of the world of Islam with the world of the West. A new type of war became like this in 20 years. Therefore strategic basis for the creation for the Russian Federation and China of overall strategic rear block without issuing relations and matchmaking would actually EAEU with the Economic Belt of the Silk Road, as a form of land globalization. To the allies within transpacific and transatlantic trade and investment partnership globalization of the seas was left around the United States along “a lonely island”. Administrative framework for the joining of the “one belt and one union” the SCO structure could become available. And the lack of interfacing mechanism would Cultural Belt of the Great Tea Road.
Culture is a carrier of intangible assets, including “goodwill”: intangible benefits are inseparable from the person which can bring the extraordinary return for investment. Therefore Cultural Belt family of nations of common values and non-Western civilizations may become a new source of traction for the creative economy in the transition of the SCO countries in the coming post-industrial information society.
Till April 2016 signs of Russian historic choice are not enough: either to remain in the loop of debt the US petrodollar economy, or turn into a path of natural values of the Chinese economy. However fixing the yuan to gold which started on 04.19.16 in the Shanghai Stock Exchange regularly, twice a day accurately points out that soon there and the price of resources will be not only in oil money, but in the “gold Yuan”. Somehow Russia is “the core” of the continental bloc (Heartland of Eurasia), and therefore is a favor prize for the winner of “Big Game”, which took the form of a new hybrid Third World War. But Russia can become a player in the “Big Game”, if it imposed scheme “Grand Chessboard” collision of “white” and “black” with China and other countries not to substitute western civilizations scheme multilateral card bridge game. And another 2017 culture will be played out. In fact: substitute values in the interests of Cultural belt, expanded towards and on top of all the material components of a fierce clash of civilizations the world of Islam and the world of the West.
Andrei Petrovich Devjatov