Meeting at the Institute of CIS countries with the delegation of the Institute of Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Academy of Social Sciences of China« Back
August 7, 2017 in the Institute of CIS countries a meeting with the staff of the Institute of Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia Academy of Social Sciences of China took place. From the Chinese side, Professor Liu Ciyun and Associate Professor Wang Guixiang took part in it. During the meeting, the Institute of CIS countries was represented by deputy director Vladimir Evseev and head of the department of Central Asia and Kazakhstan Andrei Grozin.
At present, the Institute of Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences are preparing a new edition of the book on Tajikistan. Its author is Professor Liu Ciyun, who was very interested in the possibility of organizing by the Americans in this country a "color revolution", which threatens China's national interests. Recognizing the potential for this, V.V. Yevseyev noted that in the republic there are no conditions for a "color revolution" due to the low level of democracy development, the lack of a real non-Islamic opposition and independent media In such circumstances, the overthrow of the power of President Emomali Rahmon is more possible by the hands of Islamists, given the insufficiently covered border with Afghanistan and the strong support of the local population of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (its activities in the republic were banned in 2015). Financing of anti-government activities in Tajikistan can be undertaken by Saudi Arabia with the aim of weakening Iran's influence in this republic.
With this agree, A.V. Grozin, who believes that the current government in Tajikistan has ceased to be the authority of the so-called "Kulyab" clan. Now, surrounded by President Emomali Rahmon, his relatives have greater influence, regardless of where they were born. This kind of nepotism causes more and more irritation on the part of the Tajik ruling elite against the backdrop of serious socio-economic problems and mistakes made by the republic's leadership towards its own Muslims.
As suggested by V.V. Evseev, in recent years, the volume of remittances that come to Tajikistan from labor migrants has significantly decreased. First of all, the flow of labor migrants to Kazakhstan, which is now experiencing its own economic difficulties, is declining due to a significant reduction in world prices for hydrocarbon raw materials and other minerals. The need for Tajik labor migrants for Russia also decreased. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the significant weakening of the ruble's exchange rate against world currencies, which significantly depreciated the salaries of Tajik labor migrants in the Russian Federation. As a consequence, they are forced to look for employment in other countries, in particular, in Arabian monarchies of the Persian Gulf.
In the development of this topic, A.V. Grozin pointed out that it is difficult for Tajiks to find work outside Russia and Kazakhstan for two reasons. First, there is strong competition from labor migrants from other countries. So, in Dubai there are many representatives of the Philippines, Pakistan and Ukraine. Secondly, low-skilled labor in the world is becoming less and less in demand. In this regard, the problem of the training of Tajik youth is becoming more urgent. The republic cannot solve this problem with its own forces, since the system of professional secondary education in Tajikistan has been practically destroyed. Russia and China could help in such training of Tajiks, which would help stabilize the situation in the republic. Otherwise, there is a great danger that the local population will increasingly become involved in the activities of various kinds of radical organizations.
Thus, the very fact of the meeting at the Institute of CIS countries with representatives of the Institute of Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the Academy of Social Sciences of the PRC testifies to the international prestige of our institute, which is undoubtedly one of the leading Russian organizations for studying the post-Soviet space. In connection with this, it is highly desirable to further strengthen the international links of the Institute, primarily with Russia's strategic partners, of which China is the most important.