Afrin node continues to drag out

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Afrin node continues to drag out 01.02.2018 14:32

Turkey continues the military operation "Olive Branch" in the north of Syria, in the canton of Afrin. Formally, during this operation, the pro-Turkish armed formations of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) together with the Turkish Armed Forces are going to neutralize the fighters of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (KWP), the forces of the People's Self-Defense Forces, the Kurdish Democratic Union Party and the ISIL fighters (banned in the Russian Federation ).

In fact, it is a question of the next confrontation between the Turks and the Syrian Kurds, since there are no ISIL fighters in Afrin.

With what did the next aggravation of the Syrian conflict begin?

It happened after the US announced the creation of "forces to protect border security" in the Kurdish-controlled areas of Syria with a strength of 30 thousand people, which in Turkey was perceived as a threat to national security threat..

On the eve of the launch of Operation Olive Branch, Washington, however, denied this information, and the authorities of the self-proclaimed Kurdish autonomy of the Northern Federal Region of Rodzhava postponed indefinitely the election to the legislative body of this new formation. But all this for Ankara no longer had any significant significance.

Representatives of the Turkish leadership declare that "the military operation in Africa is not directed against the Syrian state, it does not purport to violate the territorial integrity, sovereignty and political unity of the neighboring country." And it is alleged that the Turkish army will leave the Afrin area after the completion of Operation Olive Branch. However, there will remain pro-Turkish armed groups, which will to control the so-called 30-kilometer security zone.

At the beginning of the military operation, the Turkish artillery and air forces inflicted massive strikes on the positions of the Kurds in Africa. Then the ground part of the operation began. According to available information, in some areas the army advanced only 5 km. One of the reasons for this is the fear of American portable air defense systems (PADS). That's why Turkish assault aviation does not work, and bomb strikes are inflicted from a great height by unguided means of destruction.

Syrian Kurds are giving the Turkish army fierce resistance both by available forces and by armed detachments arriving from the eastern bank of the Euphrates River. Moreover, the authorities of the Northern Federal Region of Rojava announced massive mobilization in the northeast of Syria for the protection of Afrin from the Turkish army. In such conditions, the "Olive Branch" will inevitably drag on time and lead to significant casualties, including from the civilian population. Most likely, the Turks are gradually "bogged down" and will not be able to achieve their goals. Then they will need Russian peacekeeping assistance in finding an acceptable compromise for the parties.

In the current situation, Russia was forced to withdraw from Afrin its military observers and representatives of the military police. In addition, Moscow expressed concern about the beginning of the military operation of Turkey in Africa and called on the parties to restraint. On this issue, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: "We have long been paying attention to the fact that the US has taken a course toward the creation of alternative authorities on a large part of the Syrian territory. Washington encouraged and continues to encourage separatist sentiment among the Kurds. This is either a misunderstanding of the whole situation, or a conscious provocation. "A similar point of view is shared by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

The United States is trying to justify the supply of arms by the fact that the Syrian Kurds continue to struggle with IGIL. But this contradicts the nomenclature of arms supplied (primarily questions arise with regard to the supply of antiaircraft and anti-tank missile systems and armored vehicles).

Russia was ready to guarantee Turkey and the Kurds no mutual threat. The following model was proposed: in Kurdish-controlled territories, the work of Syrian authorities is being restored. However, under Syrian pressure, the Syrian Kurds did not do this.

As a result, a local armed conflict arose, which under certain conditions can spread to all the territories of the UAR, where Kurds live. This cannot but destabilize the situation, and in the future threatens to undermine the peace process in the country. In particular, the participation of Syrian Kurds in the Congress of the National Dialogue of Syria in Sochi has become extremely problematic

Thus, the Afrin node continues to drag out.

But after all, the Syrian Kurds were deliberately pushed in every way to acquire their own independence. In addition, the Americans held a policy of restraining Russia and Iran in Syria, including the supply of heavy weapons to the Kurds. Initially, this was done under the pretext of their struggle against IGIL. But why do it now, again bringing the situation inside the country to a thin and fragile face?